You guys are so lucky to have me. The draft is on Thursday and here's my latest mock draft which will no doubt change quite a bit from here to draft time. I'll indicate which picks I'm solid about and which ones I am just talking out of my ass about.
1. Portland - Greg Oden
I think this pick is pretty obvious, but I really does seem like the Blazers GM wants to take Durant. It shouldn't even be considered, but we'll see. Keep an eye on Portland the next few days to see if they do something stupid.
2. Seattle - Kevin Durant
They'll take Durant or Oden. Very simple.
3. Atlanta - Al Horford
Atlanta is passing Mike Conley Jr, the best point guard in the draft, just like they passed on Paul and Deron a few years ago. I don't agree with it, but I understand it. They can address the point guard with the #11 pick by either taking Crittenton or Law, or potentially trading it to Portland for Jarrett Carlos. They can't get someone like Horford with the #11.
4. Memphis - Brandan Wright
A lot of rumors floating around about the Grizzlies right now. I've heard they are very high on Joakim Noah, as well as Conley. But they also seem high on Wright and the league concensus right now appears to be that Wright will go #4. I'm not sure if a trade is imminent or what, but that's the rumor right now. Watch Memphis this coming week.
5. Boston - Yi Jianlian
Danny Ainge really wants Yi I guess. I don't really understand it, but I guess it makes some sense. Corey Brewer, Jeff Green, or Joakim Noah could go here but as of right now I think Yi has the biggest shot out of all four. Keep an eye on Boston as well. Incidentally, this could just be a smoke screen to get Chicago or Golden State to trade up for Yi.
6. Milwaukee - Mike Conley
I know exactly what Milwaukee is going to do, they will draft either Horford, Brandan Wright, or Mike Conley. If they are all off the board, they'll take Yi and pray for a chance to trade him, or that he decides to play in Milwaukee. Horford is #1 and Wright and Conley are probably about even.
7. Minnesota - Spencer Hawes
McHale apparently sees a lot of himself in Spencer Hawes and promised to draft him here. Not 100% sure, but it seems pretty close to a lock.
8. Charlotte - Corey Brewer
Wouldn't be surprised to see them take Noah, especially if they feel they can draft a solid 2 guard with the #22 pick, but I think Brewer is too hard to pass on, especially after Morrison's floptastic season. Look for Phoenix to trade for this pick. I haven't heard anything specifically, but the Suns are desperate to get below the luxury tax threshold next season and the Bobcats have the capspace to absorb a big contract in a trade. The Suns are also aggressively looking to trade into the top 10 to draft Noah (or Brewer). They have a scheduled workout with both of them two days before the draft, which Noah and Brewer would never do unless the Suns let them know they were trying very hard to trade up into the top 10. I could see the Suns essentially trading Shawn Marion for this pick. Or maybe Diaw and some other crap/picks.
9. Chicago - Joakim Noah
They really want Yi, but Noah is definitely #2 on their draft board. Fits in perfectly with what they want to do. If the Suns do trade up ahead of them and take Noah, they will be really pissed.
10. Sacramento - Jeff Green
The Kings are basically the worst franchise in the NBA right now and could use anything. I hear it's between Noah, Hawes, and Green at this point, and the previous picks make this an easy choice as Green is probably the BPA.
11. Atlanta - Javaris Crittenton
I guess he is getting a long look from Hawks brass, the coaches were raving about him and whatnot. They say that he seems like a true point, whereas Acie Law is more of a scorer and they don't need scoring from the point. Blah blah blah blah. This pick addresses their point guard need with either Crittenton or Law. It could also be moved to Portland for Jarrett Carlos, but I don't know why the Blazers would do it for who's left on the board.
12. Philadelphia - Al Thornton
It's not a rumored promise, but this seems like a total lock. Thornton probably has more upside than anyone in this draft short of Oden, Durant, and Yi. He's incredible. He can also shoot, which is something Thad Young and Julian Wright cannot do. They'll probably draft a wing, I don't see a big man being as intriguing as the Thornton/Wright/Young combo here.
13. New Orleans - Nick Young
This is a perfect fit and almost every mock has him here at this point.
14. L.A. Clippers - Acie Law
Acie Law has a promise and it's totally from the Clippers. Not 100% sure, but pretty close. It could be from the Hawks, and I addressed that with #11 above.
15. Detroit - Rodney Stuckey
I don't think the Pistons are looking at anyone else unless Acie Law slides.
16. Washington - Julian Wright
This just seems like a Best Player Available pick. No one left really blows you away, but Wright has lottery ability and getting him here softens the risk.
17. New Jersey - Jason Smith
They are definitely going big man, and there are a multitude of big guys who are essentially the same who they could take. Jason Smith, Big Baby, Sean Williams, Tiago Splitter, Nick Fazekas, Josh McRoberts. I really have no idea. They do have Krstic though, and I think Jason Smith fits in okay next to him. I think they take a HARD look at Sean Williams though, he would be the best fit if he didn't have so many character issues.
18. Golden State - Thad Young
Best Player Available here, and he's super athletic and could play in Golden State. They don't really have a true 3 anyway, all of their wings are more 2's.
19. L.A. Lakers - Josh McRoberts
Just seems like a great fit in the triangle. Not a lock, but this idea is getting a lot of love right now.
20. Miami - Zabian Dowdell
White Chocolate sucks and is always injured and it's pretty much guaranteed that the Heat go for a point guard here. I have no idea which one they'll take. Dowdell, Sessions, Koponen, Pruitt. Whatever. I like Dowdell the best and think he's ready to go right now as a backup to Williams with Pruitt being the next closest choice. Highly doubt Koponen.
21. Philadelphia - Tiago Splitter
I guess he had a phone conversation with the Sixers the other day where they talked about his commitment to the NBA should he be drafted and his buyout situation. Splitter will go before the next Philly pick and they are definitely interested. Seems like a worthy gamble here for a guy who might not come over until next year.
22. Charlotte - Morris Almond
Almond is a strong character guy and 4 year college player. He isn't marketable and I learned a long time ago to trust marketing instincts when mocking for the Bobcats, so perhaps I should just put Big Baby here and be done with it. Almond should provide some outside shooting and blah blah blah. This just tells you that I don't really know what Charlotte is going to do. They won't take Brewer and Almond, but I'm not sure who else they would take. Dammit, look for Glen Davis in the next mock.
23. New York - Sean Williams
By far has the most potential in the draft and would be dynamic next to David Lee or Channing Frye. It is going to be extremely difficult for Isaiah to pass on him, but if he does look for the Knicks to take Daequon Cook. Wilson Chandler might have a promise, but I doubt it.
24. Phoenix - Marco Bellinelli
This pick is so for sale. Any team can have it for a suitcase full of money. If the Suns do keep it, look for them to draft a player they won't have to pay next year.
25. Utah - Derrick Byars
I'm not really sure who the Jazz are looking for, but the Point Guard and Front Court seem pretty wrapped up, but AK-47 and Harpring certainly do not have the wings on lock down. Byars reminds a lot of Josh Howard.
26. Houston - Nick Fazekas
Apparently Fazekas is a lights out shooter (we all knew that) and would look good next to Yao. Also the new Houston GM I guess, is into some sort of basketball sabermetrics and LOVES Nick Fazekas. If this pussy goes in the first round I'm going to be really damn pissed. He's Steve Novak, who by the way, the Rockets already have. I'm pretty sure about this one.
27. Detroit - Peteri Koponen
Joe Dumars loves to show everybody how open minded he is by drafting foreign players. I guess the Pistons also have great overseas scouting. Why not Rudy Fernandez? Because it seems like Rudy Fernandez wants to fall to the second round so he can get paid right away. He is scaring teams with his buyout issues and the fact that he will get huge contract offers in Europe that make coming to the NBA as a first round pick on the First Round Salary Scale not worth it.
28. San Antonio - Rudy Fernandez
So why do the Spurs take him? The Spurs have so many advantages that all the other teams in the league simply do not have. They are committed to developing players and winning basketball games. They also have the best track record of incorporating European players into their team and ACTUALLY playing them. I think Fernandez would eschew the money in Europe for a chance to play for the Spurs. They won't get him next year, but he should be over in 2008.
29. Phoenix - Daequon Cook
Best player on the board. This pick is probably for sale for straight cash homey, but if not I don't see why they wouldn't take a young shooting guard who can knock down open shots and has a lot of potential, but has yet to realize any of it.
30. Philadelphia - Glen Davis
Who knows? I think Big Baby will sneak into the First Round at this point and I think it makes sense for the Sixers to draft him. For the record, I think the Sixers REALLY want Josh McRoberts, but they just won't get a chance to draft him. Davis should be a good fit here next to Dalembert.
