Presidential Elections

[Run DMB]

Who would he likely grab as a deputy if he were successful?

I'm thinkin' Karl Rove, and here's why: as Hollywood has demonstrated, Americans love mismatched black guy/white guy buddy action-comedies. Considering that American government in general is all about action and (unintentional) comedy, Obama and Rove make two perfect leads. Obama plays the charismatic, wise-cracking, anti-establishment black guy running for president. Rove is his rich, uber-white, buttoned-down running mate. Naturally, they are distrustful of each other at first, but through their comical misadventures they develop a friendship and respect for each other's ethnic and cultural backgrounds.

Here, they can even use this as a scene in the movie, as Rove learns to appreciate hip-hop culture:

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[rhizome17]

Only your country would have people willing to

a. do that

b. broadcast it

 

[ShiftyPowers]

I'm not sure what you mean by Deputy, presumably Vice President. My two personal favorite choices are...

1) Virginia Senator Jim Webb - comes from a military family, has kids in Iraq, anti-war, extremely moderate on social issues (he's a Red State Democrat), and he's not afraid to mix it up. It could also help ensure an Obama victory in Virginia, which is going to be important, since he seems to be down early in Florida.

2) John Edwards - comes with a big support base among Democratic working class white men who normally may not vote for Obama. Edwards could lock up these guys, and possibly give Obama states like Tennessee, Arkansas, and again Virginia.

As for McCain, I have no idea. Presumably he won't take Huckabee or Romney because they don't share his views. I think 91ul1ani is possible, but that's another scary thought since he would be one heart attack away from President. It's going to be tough for McCain, and we'll learn a LOT about his campaign from who he chooses for his running mate. He might also go off the map and take a popular Republican governor from a swing state, or blue state: Shifty mentioned Pawlenty from Minnesota earlier, I don't see any other Dem Governor that fits the bill since Blunt from Missouri was involved in the US Attorney's scandal.

 

[rhizome17]

I'm not sure what you mean by Deputy, presumably Vice President. My two personal favorite choices are...

1) Virginia Senator Jim Webb - comes from a military family, has kids in Iraq, anti-war, extremely moderate on social issues (he's a Red State Democrat), and he's not afraid to mix it up. It could also help ensure an Obama victory in Virginia, which is going to be important, since he seems to be down early in Florida.

2) John Edwards - comes with a big support base among Democratic working class white men who normally may not vote for Obama. Edwards could lock up these guys, and possibly give Obama states like Tennessee, Arkansas, and again Virginia.

Yeah temporary brain disengagement. I meant vice. Wifey thinks John Edwards is the man.

 

[ShiftyPowers]

Here's the 2004 map. Obama would need 18 more votes than Kerry got.

My impressions:

1) There is no way Obama will lose a single Kerry state. There is no possible way.

2) At a bare minimum, these states are in play: Colorado, Missouri, Tennessee, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia.

3) If you want to get very generous, Obama could conceivably pick up New Mexico, Florida, and maybe Kansas or Nebraska.

I think Iowa is without a doubt in the Obama category, taking the votes needed down to 11. That's Missouri. That's Tennessee. That's Virginia. That's Colorado and New Mexico. That's Ohio. That's Florida.

I really don't think this election is winnable for the Republicans against Obama. Against Hillary, I'm not so sure. Florida is much more in play for her but she very well might lose some Kerry states. Wisconsin will be up for grabs, as will Pennsylvania and Michigan. I don't know if I see a path to the White House for her that doesn't involve Florida, but I could see her getting Florida, but losing Wisconsin and Michigan. She has good shots in Arkansas and Tennessee, but I don't think they are great. She has a shot in New Mexico, but that's right next to McCain's home state and McCain is "good" on immigration.

 

[RobbieD_PL]

If Hillary's going by that video on page 4, Obama will be the next president of the US

Q's for Shifty: If people are voting just for the one candidate as president, Why do they need a running-mate? Is it just to cover more ground across the girth of the country or smth more definitive? And does that running-mate neccesarily become vice-president once their candidate is elected?

 

[ShiftyPowers]

It's complicated, but here it goes. Basically the Constitution lays out two positions in the Executive Branch: President and Vice President. The President has all of the executive powers for the country, and the Vice President has.... well nothing. They can serve as President of the US Senate if they really want to, but can only cast votes if there is a tie and a tie breaking vote is needed. Most Vice Presidents rarely show up at the Senate.

Originally, the "electors" in the Electoral College all cast two votes each for President. Whoever got the most votes became President, and whoever got the second most was Vice President. This was changed after political rivals started ending up as President and Vice President teams. So now every elector votes 1 person for President and 1 person for Vice President on the same ballot.

Honestly, there is not much need for a Vice President except for his role as tie breaker in the Senate, adviser to the President, and emissary of goodwill (Cheney is exceptionally bad at this). It is just a post required in the Constitution that I'm sure had more significance in 1789. Also, he becomes President if the President dies, resigns, or is impeached and removed from office.

 

[ShiftyPowers]

McCain carried on an affair with a political lobbyist and then inappropriately tried to push things through the legislature and FCC for her client.

There is massive vote fraud in Hillary's favor in New York City.

Just another day in United States politics.

 

[RobbieD_PL]

Yeh I was going to say, it would seem a bit impractical to have the Pres and V-Pres on oposite sides of the political fence. At first I thought Run DMB ws being sarcastic with the whole Obama/Rove thing.

So it's sort of the co-habitation thing that happened in France. (I studied all about this in Canada, nothing of the sort in Australia ) The president is elected as head of state, with national powers, and the PM is head of govt and effects his powers with his cabinet. Except in France you have two seperate votes one for the Pres and one for the Legislature, only weeks apart rather than two years. instead of both conducted simultaneously.

Ah also, how does the caucusing process work? Is it meant to act like a grass roots thing, whereby swing-voters are attempted to be converted by a candidate's zealots? And how do you have the scenario where by a candidate from the Republicans and Democrates win in the same state? Is it just the party branch for a particular state having a majority of votes for a particular candidate within its constituency?

 

[SlayerDeuS]

Anybody else get a eerie feeling that some idiot will try to assassinate Obama? I have a bad feeling, certain people in this country don't like blacks....especially one in a position of power and influence.

 

[ShiftyPowers]

Ah also, how does the caucusing process work? Is it meant to act like a grass roots thing, whereby swing-voters are attempted to be converted by a candidate's zealots? And how do you have the scenario where by a candidate from the Republicans and Democrats win in the same state? Is it just the party branch for a particular state having a majority of votes for a particular candidate within its constituency?

Each Party nominates a candidate, and then those two candidates square off in the general election. We are currently in the primary phase, where the parties are nominating their candidates. McCain has essentially won the Republican nomination, but it is still close between Obama and Hillary for the Democratic nomination. Each state gets a certain amount of delegates who vote at the party convention, they can choose how to democratically allocate those delegates for each candidate. In a primary (where I voted Tuesday) you just go and cast your vote and go home. Caucuses on the other hand, generally take an hour or two in the evening, and therefore attracts only more dedicated supporters. As I understand, in a caucus everyone divides into the candidates they support and then each candidate can have a surrogate speak on their behalf to try and get the votes of independents. Also, some states may have viability thresholds at a caucus. For example, I cannot show up and say "I vote for myself" at a caucus and have it counted, I would need X% of supporters at the caucus to also vote for me, otherwise I have to choose someone else who is "viable".

Very confusing stuff. I'm glad my state just has a straight primary and no caucus. It's all made so complicated by this duel sovereignty between the federal government and the states.

 

[RobbieD_PL]

Ok, thanks for the explanation. Don't worry, It's makes a lot more sense now.
(EDIT: Damn I can't pos-rep you for any of the above posts )

Ah one more thing. You can't vote in both a Republican and a Democrat primary/caucus of the same state, can you?
Thus, you would have to be a registered member for one or the other party, no?

Ah and one last thing. From what I know of Nevada, it's quite liberal with the (in)famous legalized prostitution and gambling.
Why on earth is it a Red state?

 

[::shinji::]

Here's the 2004 map. Obama would need 18 more votes than Kerry got.

My impressions:

1) There is no way Obama will lose a single Kerry state. There is no possible way.

2) At a bare minimum, these states are in play: Colorado, Missouri, Tennessee, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia.

3) If you want to get very generous, Obama could conceivably pick up New Mexico, Florida, and maybe Kansas or Nebraska.

I think Iowa is without a doubt in the Obama category, taking the votes needed down to 11. That's Missouri. That's Tennessee. That's Virginia. That's Colorado and New Mexico. That's Ohio. That's Florida.

I really don't think this election is winnable for the Republicans against Obama. Against Hillary, I'm not so sure. Florida is much more in play for her but she very well might lose some Kerry states. Wisconsin will be up for grabs, as will Pennsylvania and Michigan. I don't know if I see a path to the White House for her that doesn't involve Florida, but I could see her getting Florida, but losing Wisconsin and Michigan. She has good shots in Arkansas and Tennessee, but I don't think they are great. She has a shot in New Mexico, but that's right next to McCain's home state and McCain is "good" on immigration.

Whaaat, you mean Kerry didn't win in Utah!? j/k

Hilary is just wayyy too polarizing when it comes down to it, she'll lose a lot of the swing votes that Obama would surely get. Besides, I don't know if it's just his public speaking ability, but there's something about Obama that I think really inspires confidence. Hilary on the other hand has not done so well when confronted with some tough questions.

Oh well, one day none of this will matter though. In like 200 years, the blue states will have merged with Canada to form a new country anyway (minus Alberta, the redneck province). Having travelled a lot and spent quite a bit of time in the US, from what I've seen I still sometimes find it hard to believe that West Virginia and Vermont are actually in the same country.

 

[rhizome17]

Anybody else get a eerie feeling that some idiot will try to assassinate Obama? I have a bad feeling, certain people in this country don't like blacks....especially one in a position of power and influence.

Personally can't see that happening. Way too moderate, way to welded to conventional power groups.

 

[Run DMB]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/uc/20080220/cm_uc_crmmax/op_195315

pwned.

 

[ShiftyPowers]

Michelle Malkin would deport or intern herself, depending on what the situation called for.

 

[Run DMB]

I'm not her biggest fan, but that was pure pwnage.

 

[ShiftyPowers]

This has been so ridiculously blown out of proportion. Americans don't have to like everything or anything about what our country has done. Isn't it better that people like that try to change the nation the right way instead of blowing up buildings?

 

[KingPaulV]

Come on; michelle Obama said that in the context of an African American woman....I can understand what she meant...surely she has been proud of America but the pride she spoke of is that for the first time ever, it seems as if the "great american divide (race) is not such a big deal anymore, and frankly as an American, and somebody who is always greateful to this great country, that makes me extremely proud as well..

 

[KingPaulV]

btw debate over between Obama and Clinton, it was a tie again, and that can only favor Obama....i think this is the last of their debates I watch, bring on mccain