20 games in.
8 home wins, 5 draws, 7 away wins
30 home goals, 23 away goals (home +30%)
i'm right at my target. the win/loss distribution is almost even (definitely not what we want), but this is where 20 games is not even near to remotely close of being a sample.
out of curiosity, i checked the last 20 games of the biggest leagues just to show how this can vary wildly in such a sample:
premier league
7 home wins, 8 draw, 5 away wins
30 home goals, 19 away goals (+58%)
la liga
10 home wins, 5 draws, 5 away wins
41 home goals, 28 away goals (+46%)
bundesliga
10 home wins, 8 draws, 2 away wins
30 home goals, 17 away goals (+76%)
serie a
8 home wins, 5 draws, 7 away wins (same as me)
24 home goals, 29 away goals (-21%)
ligue 1
12 home wins, 4 draws, 4 away wins
29 home goals, 23 away goals (+26%)
so this is why i decided to primarily look at shooting instead of wins or goals. bigger frequency = less variance = bigger confidence.
and this is the breakdown of these 20 testing games:
as i said,
8 home wins, 5 draws, 7 away wins
30 home goals, 23 away goals (+30%)
shots:
172 home, 142 away (+21%)
on target:
109 home, 78 away (+37%)
possession:
49.3% home, 50.7% away
shot accuracy:
63.4% home, 54.9% away
pass accuracy:
80.7% home, 81.9% away
the tweak has proven to work in providing home advantage in my games. i came as close as i could come to real life shooting and scoring stats, under the limitations of this sample size. anyway, the worst case scenario here is "not quite there but close enough". i can live with that, quite happily. no one has ever done something so analytical in this subject, so i'm certain this is the closest solution we have for fifa at the moment.
i'm glad to see pass accuracy itself wasn't affected by the tweak, since there isn't a big discrepancy in home vs away pass accuracy in real life too. it's more about the quality of the passes. i think this is the reason home teams had the edge in shot accuracy here. good passes just put them in better spots to shoot.
i'm done testing this for now. got where i wanted, no need to change the initial setting. i'll put fifa to rest until ariel releases an update for the moddingway patch with the new season rosters, then i'll restart my valencia career (i was sucking as much as they did in real life in the last season anyway). when i finish my first season, i'll post the home/away records here just to check what we got.
i know this was done solely in fifa 14 and there's a new engine, yada yada, but as i said, i believe i'm the first one to look seriously into home advantage in fifa, so if i wanted to have home advantage in fifa 17 or whatever, i'd certainly start with this same pass error tweak. the concept is as close to fail-proof as it can get.
in case someone does it, i would deeply appreciate some results being shared here. i'm very curious about how it would translate.
see ya'll soon!