This is a reminder of 3 IMPORTANT RULES:
1- External self-promotion websites or apps are NOT allowed here, like Discord/Twitter/Patreon/etc.
2- Do NOT post in other languages. English-only.
3- Crack/Warez/Piracy talk is NOT allowed.
Breaking any of the above rules will result in your messages being deleted and you will be banned upon repetition.
Please, stop by this thread SoccerGaming Forum Rules And Guidelines and make sure you read and understand our policies.
Thank you!
PAKISTAN FOR BUSH.
July Surprise?
by John B. Judis, Spencer Ackerman & Massoud Ansari
Post date 07.29.04 | Issue date 07.19.04
[Editor's Note: This afternoon, Pakistan's interior minister, Faisal Saleh Hayyat, announced that Pakistani forces had captured Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani, a Tanzanian Al Qaeda operative wanted in connection with the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The timing of this announcement should be of particular interest to readers of The New Republic. Earlier this month, John B. Judis, Spencer Ackerman, and Massoud Ansari broke the story of how the Bush administration was pressuring Pakistani officials to apprehend high-value targets (HVTs) in time for the November elections--and in particular, to coincide with the Democratic National Convention. Although the capture took place in central Pakistan "a few days back," the announcement came just hours before John Kerry will give his acceptance speech in Boston.]
Late last month, President Bush lost his greatest advantage in his bid for reelection. A poll conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post discovered that challenger John Kerry was running even with the president on the critical question of whom voters trust to handle the war on terrorism. Largely as a result of the deteriorating occupation of Iraq, Bush lost what was, in April, a seemingly prohibitive 21-point advantage on his signature issue. But, even as the president's poll numbers were sliding, his administration was implementing a plan to insure the public's confidence in his hunt for Al Qaeda.
This spring, the administration significantly increased its pressure on Pakistan to kill or capture Osama bin Laden, his deputy, Ayman Al Zawahiri, or the Taliban's Mullah Mohammed Omar, all of whom are believed to be hiding in the lawless tribal areas of Pakistan. A succession of high-level American officials--from outgoing CIA Director George Tenet to Secretary of State Colin Powell to Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca to State Department counterterrorism chief Cofer Black to a top CIA South Asia official--have visited Pakistan in recent months to urge General Pervez Musharraf's government to do more in the war on terrorism. In April, Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador to Afghanistan, publicly chided the Pakistanis for providing a "sanctuary" for Al Qaeda and Taliban forces crossing the Afghan border. "The problem has not been solved and needs to be solved, the sooner the better," he said.
This public pressure would be appropriate, even laudable, had it not been accompanied by an unseemly private insistence that the Pakistanis deliver these high-value targets (HVTs) before Americans go to the polls in November. The Bush administration denies it has geared the war on terrorism to the electoral calendar. "Our attitude and actions have been the same since September 11 in terms of getting high-value targets off the street, and that doesn't change because of an election," says National Security Council spokesman Sean McCormack. But The New Republic has learned that Pakistani security officials have been told they must produce HVTs by the election. According to one source in Pakistan's powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), "The Pakistani government is really desperate and wants to flush out bin Laden and his associates after the latest pressures from the U.S. administration to deliver before the [upcoming] U.S. elections." Introducing target dates for Al Qaeda captures is a new twist in U.S.-Pakistani counterterrorism relations--according to a recently departed intelligence official, "no timetable" were discussed in 2002 or 2003--but the November election is apparently bringing a new deadline pressure to the hunt. Another official, this one from the Pakistani Interior Ministry, which is responsible for internal security, explains, "The Musharraf government has a history of rescuing the Bush administration. They now want Musharraf to bail them out when they are facing hard times in the coming elections." (These sources insisted on remaining anonymous. Under Pakistan's Official Secrets Act, an official leaking information to the press can be imprisoned for up to ten years.)
A third source, an official who works under ISI's director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed tnr that the Pakistanis "have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs before [the] election is [an] absolute must." What's more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: "The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during [ul-Haq's] meetings in Washington." Says McCormack: "I'm aware of no such comment." But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that "it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July"--the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston.
The Bush administration has matched this public and private pressure with enticements and implicit threats. During his March visit to Islamabad, Powell designated Pakistan a major non-nato ally, a status that allows its military to purchase a wider array of U.S. weaponry. Powell pointedly refused to criticize Musharraf for pardoning nuclear physicist A.Q. Khan--who, the previous month, had admitted exporting nuclear secrets to Iran, North Korea, and Libya--declaring Khan's transgressions an "internal" Pakistani issue. In addition, the administration is pushing a five-year, $3 billion aid package for Pakistan through Congress over Democratic concerns about the country's proliferation of nuclear technology and lack of democratic reform.
But Powell conspicuously did not commit the United States to selling F-16s to Pakistan, which it desperately wants in order to tilt the regional balance of power against India. And the Pakistanis fear that, if they don't produce an HVT, they won't get the planes. Equally, they fear that, if they don't deliver, either Bush or a prospective Kerry administration would turn its attention to the apparent role of Pakistan's security establishment in facilitating Khan's illicit proliferation network. One Pakistani general recently in Washington confided in a journalist, "If we don't find these guys by the election, they are going to stick this whole nuclear mess up our asshole."
Pakistani perceptions of U.S. politics reinforce these worries. "In Pakistan, there has been a folk belief that, whenever there's a Republican administration in office, relations with Pakistan have been very good," says Khalid Hasan, a U.S. correspondent for the Lahore-based Daily Times. By contrast, there's also a "folk belief that the Democrats are always pro-India." Recent history has validated those beliefs. The Clinton administration inherited close ties to Pakistan, forged a decade earlier in collaboration against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. But, by the time Clinton left office, the United States had tilted toward India, and Pakistan was under U.S. sanctions for its nuclear activities. All this has given Musharraf reason not just to respond to pressure from Bush, but to feel invested in him--and to worry that Kerry, who called the Khan affair a "disaster," and who has proposed tough new curbs on nuclear proliferation, would adopt an icier line.
Bush's strategy could work. In large part because of the increased U.S. pressure, Musharraf has, over the last several months, significantly increased military activity in the tribal areas--regions that enjoy considerable autonomy from Islamabad and where, until Musharraf sided with the United States in the war on terrorism, Pakistani soldiers had never set foot in the nation's 50-year history. Thousands of Pakistani troops fought a pitched battle in late March against tribesmen and their Al Qaeda affiliates in South Waziristan in hopes of capturing Zawahiri. The fighting escalated significantly in June. Attacks on army camps in the tribal areas brought fierce retaliation, leaving over 100 tribal and foreign militants and Pakistani soldiers dead in three days. Last month, Pakistan killed a powerful Waziristan warlord and Qaeda ally, Nek Mohammed, in a dramatic rocket attack that villagers said bore American fingerprints. (They claim a U.S. spy plane had been circling overhead.) Through these efforts, the Pakistanis could bring in bin Laden, Mullah Omar, or Zawahiri--a significant victory in the war on terrorism that would bolster Bush's reputation among voters.
But there is a reason many Pakistanis and some American officials had previously been reluctant to carry the war on terrorism into the tribal areas. A Pakistani offensive in that region, aided by American high-tech weaponry and perhaps Special Forces, could unite tribal chieftains against the central government and precipitate a border war without actually capturing any of the HVTs. Military action in the tribal areas "has a domestic fallout, both religious and ethnic," Pakistani Foreign Minister Mian Khursheed Mehmood Kasuri complained to the Los Angeles Times last year. Some American intelligence officials agree. "Pakistan just can't risk a civil war in that area of their country. They can't afford a western border that is unstable," says a senior intelligence official, who anonymously authored the recent Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror and who says he has not heard that the current pressures on Pakistan are geared to the election. "We may be at the point where [Musharraf] has done almost as much as he can."
Pushing Musharraf to go after Al Qaeda in the tribal areas may be a good idea despite the risks. But, if that is the case, it was a good idea in 2002 and 2003. Why the switch now? Top Pakistanis think they know: This year, the president's reelection is at stake.
Massoud Ansari reported from Karachi.
John B. Judis is a senior editor at TNR and a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Spencer Ackerman is an assistant editor at TNR. Massoud Ansari is a senior reporter for Newsline, a leading Pakistani news magazine.
Originally posted by Brondbyfan
It's possible. But I think the idea of a possible "October Surprise" has been out there long enough that if bin Laden is found soon, it would actually be a negative for Bush. People will start asking questions: was Bush really just grossly inept in the Battle of Tora Bora, or did he intentionally let bin Laden get away in order to capture him at a more convenient time? Was bin Laden in fact captured at a previous time and held "on ice" until the election? I don't doubt they entertained the possibility, but the backlash would be enormous. Bush is screwed here, if he captures bin Laden now everyone knows what's up, and if he doesn't he will rightly be criticized for his massive failure in capturing the man who killed 3000 Americans, who Bush swore to get "dead or alive."
What Elder says is a distinct possibility though. Remember, this administration is largely composed of Reaganites, and Reagan negotiated with the Iranians through GHW Bush to hold onto the hostages through the 1980 election, promising them weapons in exchange for the hostages. Is it any wonder the hostages were released right at Reagan's inauguration? 9/11 was great for Bush, and considering his approval rating is very low again he might try a scheme like this to boost his popularity again.
Originally posted by Brondbyfan
Now wait a minute, are you aware of the information that has come out on this "Buckhead" Freeper guy who came out two hours after CBS aired the documents with a highly technical analysis of the documents positing they are fakes? Who is he? An impartial expert on 1970's typewriter technology? Nope.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationalpolitics/2002039080_buckhead18.html
He's just a lawyer from Atlanta who is intricately linked to the Republican party and with a long-standing vicious grudge against the Democratic party. So it seems to me that if these are fake, and that isn't what CBS is saying, then my theory all along stands, that they were faked by Republican operatives looking to discredit the Bush AWOL claims and draw attention away from the undeniable fact that records released by Bush himself reveal that he did not fulfill his contract in numerous ways, the most egregious being failing to join up with a unit in Boston. And again, CBS isn't saying these are fake. They're saying they made a mistake in judgement in airing them because apparently the numerous experts they checked with aren't giving them the degree of certainty they would like. The posibility exists that they were duped by Republican operatives looking to embarrass them. How is this indicative of liberal bias? The media certainly made far worse mistakes in judgement in repeatedly airing lies that Clinton was caught by Secret Service agents while in compromising positions with Lewinski, or that he tried to get Lewinsky to lie to the Paula Jones grand jury. If anything, the apology is evidence of conservative bias. When did you ever hear NBC apologize for letting Drudge spew unfounded vitriol against Clinton on Meet the Press? When did CNN apologize for letting Novak pimp Unfit for Command when his family stands to profit from every mention on the air? Hell, a rough analogue to this situation is CNN and MSNBC airing the discredited Swift Boat ads, which have been proven to be false, and I don't see any apology from them.
Originally posted by Brondbyfan
Wait, did you seriously just say that the Swift Boat liars got NO coverage? That has to be a joke, right? Not only did the networks devote two solid weeks of coverage to their discredited claims, CNN and MSNBC are airing their ad. And I don't care if they paid for it like anyone else, the ads in questions demonstrably and shamelessly edit Kerry's testimony to warp his recitation of testimony by other soldiers into accusations. Responsible news networks have a duty not to misinform their viewers like that. As for Fox and Drudge, that they hired this irresponsible right-wing gossip monger at all says all you need to know about their political leanings and journalistic integrity. His appearance on the much revered, longest running show on TV, Meet the Press, deserved an apology, as he claimed there were literally "hundreds" of women Clinton slept with or harrassed who would testify against him. That may fly on Fox but it shouldn't on MTP. Sadly, it did.
Again, nothing has been proven one way or the other about the documents, except that Killian's secretary said the sentiments expressed are true. I think the question that needs to be answered here is how this "Buckhead" responded so quickly and so completely to a subject he would seem to have no knowledge of.
I still can't believe you won't admit the documents in question were forgeries. THEY ARE!!! The whole story is BOGUS, I repeat... BOGUS. Bush, while not the model National Guard student, fulfilled ALL of his duties except taking a physical it seems. He earned enough points every year to get honorably discharged. You may not like it, but it's true. And the fact that the story hasn't stuck for election after election, no matter how many times the dems try, says it all for why Democrats keep losing to this man.
Originally posted by Brondbyfan
Bush has never denied the allegations that he murdered Mel Carnahan and Paul Wellstone to try and maintain Republican control of the Senate.
Originally posted by Brondbyfan
There you go, that allegation is NUTS, but the idea that Clinton raped a woman and killed Vince Foster who was having an affair with Hillary Clinton, who, somehow, is also a lesbian, deserves coverage. I didn't say Bush DID kill Carnahan and Wellstone, I'm saying he didn't deny it, which is true. And since you seem to think Clinton not denying ridiculous rape allegations means he did it, you must think Bush murdered the senatorial candidates in question. As per usual, you're dishonestly manipulating the context of my writings. Don't you ever feel ashamed of it?
Originally posted by Dave
LOL can't believe how stupid this country is.
The country is still pissed about the Defeat of Vietnam, thats why all this ******* rambling continues about these political candidates.
If America would of won Vietnam, there wouldn't be no discussion of this **** in year 2004.
But Viet-Nam proved not to mess with the commie !!
VIVA LA REVOLUCION!!
Originally posted by Elder
Moron, did you get banned and come back with a new name?
" Bush has never denied the allegations that he murdered Mel Carnahan and Paul Wellstone to try and maintain Republican control of the Senate."
Hard to take that out of context!