Run DMB;2681298 said:
I'm not going to argue that CONCACAF is better than CAF, but look at the last four World Cups:
2006: 1 of 5 (20%) African teams made it out of the group stage compared to 1 of 4 (25%) CONCACAF teams
2002: 1 of 5 (20%) African teams made it out of the group stage compared to 2 of 3 (67%) CONCACAF teams
1998: 1 of 5 (20%) African teams made it out of the group stage compared to 1 of 3 (33%) CONCACAF teams
1994: 1 of 3 (33%) African teams made it out of the group stage compared to 2 of 2 (100%) CONCACAF teams
Total: 4 CAF teams and 6 CONCACAF teams got into the second round; 22% and 50% respectively.
look at it this way:
1994: Nigeria | Mexico, USA
1998: Nigeria | Mexico
2002: Senegal | Mexico, USA
2006: Ghana | Mexico
so that's 3 different teams that have gone through to the second round from CAF, but the exact same 2 going through from CONCACAF ...
but this is a silly game, and I don't see it leading anywhere ...
Run DMB;2681298 said:
Obviously, CAF is much deeper than CONCACAF, so the above results are not an accurate indication of the confederations' strength, but I think the current allocation of WC spots is pretty fair.
CAF gets 5 spots, while CONCACAF 3 guaranteed, and 1 more in a play-off against CONMEBOL ... I would have to dispute that extra play-off spot, and argue that it should be 2 guaranteed, and 1 play-off ...
I'd also like to add that if we see a play-off between CAF and CONCACAF for that extra spot, then I am confident that Africa would be nailing that extra spot the majority of the time -- meaning that I feel that a 6th African team (who isn't part of the already-qualified 5 from CAF) would win against the 4th place or even the 3rd place CONCACAF qualifier ...
I say so because CAF is notorious for having big-name casualties in World Cup qualifying, usually due to a solitary slip-up in what turns out to be a crucial match ... so it would inevitably a big team like Egypt, or look at last time when Cameroon and/or Nigeria would have been vying for that spot against T&T, or on this rare occasion a woeful-looking Mexico ...
RE: the unquantifiable factors
in discussions such as these, I find that it is impossible to continue because there is no objective way of agreeing on talent and a raw "awe" factor ... African teams are dynamic, chock-a-block full of talent, and they exude fearlessness ... yes, it is all dependent on their form, and African players can be very moody, but on their day, they will match any big name team on the planet, and even try to better them ...
there is a real possibility that one out of Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Ghana, or even Egypt can seriously push for a semifinal berth, or more ... a lesser-known team like Guinea, or even maverick outfits like Gabon or DRC can spring a surprise ... you just don't get that vibe from CONCACAF teams ...
maybe it seems like I'm being biased, but that's what I feel from personal experience, from what I hear said by the footballing fraternity ...