2012 USA Election Day Thread

[Sir Calumn]

Isn't it enough for Obama to win Ohio? You should hold the election just there, while the rest of the country actually did something.

That trend's got to break sooner or later. IF Romney and Ryan had delivered their "home" states, they could have done it without Ohio.

 

[ShiftyPowers]

Isn't it enough for Obama to win Ohio? You should hold the election just there, while the rest of the country actually did something.

Unfortunately, Election Day is not a holiday in the USA, so the country will be working today.

Sir_Didier_Drogba, I will get to you in a second and make a big swing state post. My driver's license is no longer valid, so I'm looking around for a proof of residence because I can register at the polls in my state. The only thing I have found (and it meets the VERY last requirement, which is "any other document issued by a government entity) is a piece of paper saying I am eligible for unemployment. So that is how I will register today

 

[Sir Calumn]

Unfortunately, Election Day is not a holiday in the USA, so the country will be working today.

Sir_Didier_Drogba, I will get to you in a second and make a big swing state post. My driver's license is no longer valid, so I'm looking around for a proof of residence because I can register at the polls in my state. The only thing I have found (and it meets the VERY last requirement, which is "any other document issued by a government entity) is a piece of paper saying I am eligible for unemployment. So that is how I will register today

The democrats would probably win every election if their voter base werent such losers

 

[ShiftyPowers]

So talk me through the key states and who is going to win them. I see Florida and Colorado as potential republican wins, indeed Florida as likely, and Arizona and NC as Republican holds. This immediately puts the election a lot closer than 2008. I see Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire as probably democrat holds, and New Mexico as possible democrat hold. That leaves battlegrounds Iowa and Ohio - as I said, I dont think Romney has done enough to win them, but I still think coming down to two states counts as close.

As Fili says, the election pretty much centers around Ohio. Romney can't win without it in any realistic scenario. But let's start by taking all the swing states out of the equation: these are nominally

Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida

Take these out and you have 212-191 Obama lead. Winner needs 270.

Now, many of these are not really swing states. Using 538 for states with a 95% chance of going one way or the other removes

New Mexico - Obama
Wisconsin - Obama
Pennsylvania - Obama

Which bumps it up to Obama - 248, and he only needs 22 more electoral votes to win the election. As you see it is NOT REALLY THAT CLOSE. In addition to those 3 states, Obama is extremely likely to win Iowa, New Mexico, and New Hampshire, which makes it 263. If any of those states go to Romney then something is up and there could be a shy tory effect or the polls could have systematically undersampled Republican voters somehow. (EDIT: Actually, New Hampshire is weird and probably doesn't mean anything on a national level).

Either way, Obama only needs one more state from Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.

In my opinion Obama won't win North Carolina and even if he does win Florida it will probably be like in 2000 after a few months of recounts.

That leaves Obama needing Colorado, Ohio, or Virginia. Virginia's demographics have changed significantly as the DC area expands into Northern Virginia and Obama's polling in the last week has shown that he is building a very slight lead. Further, the polling still states that Obama has a significant lead in Ohio (in fact, Ohio is seen as more likely for Obama than New Hampshire and Iowa which I have already given to Barry based on their history of voting for Democrats). Colorado statistically is about as likely as Virginia, and it also has changing demographics (although instead of blacks and insufferable white people it is getting hispanics), but for some reason it seems weird to me that it could go Democrat twice in a row.

Either way, that leads us to a "Firewall" for Obama. If he wins Ohio, the election is effectively over. If he wins Virginia, the election is effectively over. It would basically be impossible for him to win one of those states and lose the election because winning those states would indicate that the polling is correct and represent a national trend.

So that's where we are and I predict Obama to win with either 294 or 303 electoral votes.

And if North Carolina or Florida can get called for Obama early, this will be a landslide. If Virginia or Ohio gets called for Romney early, he's got a shot.

 

[ShiftyPowers]

The democrats would probably win every election if their voter base werent such losers

This is actually a thing. The more people vote, the better Democrats do (capital D, btw). This is why Voter ID laws and not having same day registration are policies the Republicans push; it's all voter suppression and very cynical. It's also why Republicans tend to do better in midterm elections (2010 for example, when the president isn't on the ballot), because a lot of people don't care, so it's mostly olds voting.

 

[Sir Calumn]

Yes but an election can still be close even with a large gap in the overall EC, in those five states you mention of which Obama needs just one I dont think there is a single one which exit polls put as more than 3% gap, could drop to 2% due to low turnout, so Obama could win with a margin of 40+ EC and it still be a close election - wouldnt have taken much more to tip the balance en mass.

Of the five you mention: NC, Florida and Colorado really are neck and neck, could all go republican, and Virginia despite everything is still a conservative state, could go for northern republican Mitt, leaving it possible that of the states he need to win one of, it could only be one that he wins, Ohio.

There are alternative paths of course. CNN International are trying to build up the possibility of a 269-269 tie

 

[ShiftyPowers]

269-269 is essentially impossible, but it would leave us with an amusing possibility of a Romney/Biden administration.

2-3% lead doesn't seem like much, but when EVERY SINGLE POLL comes back with the same thing, it really cuts down the margin or error a lot. And as I said, the demographics are shifting in Virginia. And frankly, those states don't really mean much if Obama carries Ohio as expected. And the popular vote doesn't mean anything, but yes Romney is much more likely to win that than the actual election.

I would love to ditch the electoral college, but this is where we are. And Bush DID lose the popular vote in 2000 and became president... of course this was because the Supreme Court came to an incredibly partisan decision that arbitrarily said "STOP RECOUNTING NOW WE DON'T CARE WHO PEOPLE ACTUALLY VOTED FOR" in Florida. I've seen where they did full recounts in Florida and Gore actually won, but this is neither here nor there.

 

[MaestroZidane]

To add to the Ohio statement, the opposite is true for California and I Don't know why Obama bothers to come here. It's always a sure win for a democrat president here. All he does is cause major traffic delays.

 

[Sir Calumn]

Oh yeah, definitely, as I said I do not think Romney has done enough to get there. I think the biggest nails in his coffin have been not enough of a bounce from the Ryan nomination (a gamble which I can see why he took but which appears not to have payed off) and the success and popularity of ironically Obama's most socialist decision, the auto industry bailout, which is probably the difference in those key Northern states

The total money raised in contributions has now topped $4.2b

 

[ShiftyPowers]

To add to the Ohio statement, the opposite is true for California and I Don't know why Obama bothers to come here. It's always a sure win for a democrat president here. All he does is cause major traffic delays.

This is where he raises the most money. He doesn't do cool speeches on Sunset with mobs of people in all directions, he hosts big parties for Streisand and friends where they donate a lot of money.

 

[Sir Calumn]

To add to the Ohio statement, the opposite is true for California and I Don't know why Obama bothers to come here. It's always a sure win for a democrat president here. All he does is cause major traffic delays.

Probably to help out the Governor and congressmen who arent as secure........ there are a lot of Republicans in california, just not a majority.

 

[ShiftyPowers]

Oh yeah, definitely, as I said I do not think Romney has done enough to get there. I think the biggest nails in his coffin have been not enough of a bounce from the Ryan nomination (a gamble which I can see why he took but which appears not to have payed off) and the success and popularity of ironically Obama's most socialist decision, the auto industry bailout, which is probably the difference in those key Northern states

This is right, but of course actual socialism was never the problem. Take away Social Security and Medicare under the banner of "no more socialism" and see how long your stay in power in your Republican district.

Romney really ****ed himself by saying that Jeep/Chrysler was shipping jobs to China, which was a complete lie. Despite getting called out on it he doubled down and put the claim in ads. The head of Chrysler tweeted at him that he was "full of ****".

 

[MaestroZidane]

Shifty Statement is right, he just comes for the dinner invitations and money raising dinners with the movie stars.

 

[ShiftyPowers]

Shifty Statement is right, he just comes for the dinner invitations and money raising dinners with the movie stars.

To be fair, I would too. In fact, if I was a Democrat in Congress I'd be using that to try to **** all the movie stars.

 

[Mus]

Did you guys have a toy with this?
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

 

[Sir Calumn]

This is right, but of course actual socialism was never the problem. Take away Social Security and Medicare under the banner of "no more socialism" and see how long your stay in power in your Republican district.

Romney really ****ed himself by saying that Jeep/Chrysler was shipping jobs to China, which was a complete lie. Despite getting called out on it he doubled down and put the claim in ads. The head of Chrysler tweeted at him that he was "full of ****".

For me the apparent bee Romney has in his bonnet about China is the most undesirable thing about him...... I mean, I dont like China on pretty much any level, but you cant afford to alienate them right now.

 

[Sir Calumn]

Just seeing footage of four hour queues outside polling stations in Florida...... again........ how can you guys not get that **** organized?

EDIT: Is it a deliberate tactic by the republican state legislature to crowd the ballot paper, apparently there are loads of nonsense local issues on it, also three languages, I get English and Spanish but what is the third!?

 

[ShiftyPowers]

I don't believe in austerity measures during recession, so the whole party is pretty much anathema to me right now. I also actually think the government can do good and that health care should be a right in the 21st century. Oh, and I don't want to cause a nuclear war in the middle east to destroy Israel and bring about the end times (A BIG PART OF THIS COUNTRY BELIEVES THE RAPTURE IS IMMINENT).

 

[ShiftyPowers]

Just seeing footage of four hour queues outside polling stations in Florida...... again........ how can you guys not get that **** organized?

You'll notice that the long lines tend to be in urban black and latino areas in states that have Republicans running the election. The longest I've had to wait in a line was the 2008 Democratic Primary, and that was only 15 minutes and because I was on a college campus, so everyone was voting in it.

 

[MaestroZidane]

The China thing is just political talk, despite all his statements, he really wouldn't do anything about. Unless he wants to piss off a lot of Company owners here in the U.S, most of whom you know donated to his campaign.